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Polymarket Markets
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Kalshi Markets
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Matched Pairs
Cross-Platform Market MatchesSIMULATED
| Market Question | Polymarket YES | Kalshi YES | Spread | Type |
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🎯 Active Arbitrage Opportunities
Sorted by spread size · Min 3% threshold
Combined Probability Analysis
If YES prices across platforms sum to <100%, there's a theoretical risk-free profit. Below are markets where combined implied probabilities indicate mispricing.
| Market | Poly YES | Kalshi YES | Sum | Overround | Signal |
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Spread History Over Time
Convergence Stats
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Spread Distribution
Arbitrage Calculator
Results
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Kelly Criterion
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Polymarket
Crypto-native · Global
Trading Fee~2%
SettlementUMA Oracle
CurrencyUSDC
Min Trade$1
KYCNo (non-US)
LiquidityHigh
Markets—
🔵
Kalshi
CFTC-Regulated · US Only
Trading Fee~7%
SettlementCentralized
CurrencyUSD
Min Trade$1
KYCRequired
LiquidityMedium
Markets—
🟡
Metaculus
Forecasting · Non-monetary
Trading FeeFree
SettlementCommunity
CurrencyPoints
Min TradeFree
KYCNo
LiquidityN/A
Questions—
Fee Impact on Arbitrage
Market Coverage Overlap